Sunday, November 30, 2008

Still looking for premier win

Thanksgiving has past and Orlando has stuffed its face to a 13-4 record so far this season. But have these wins been nice turkey, or that fatty dark meat?

So far, you have to say it has not been the healthy part of the turkey -- the kind that builds a nice playoff resume and cements your team as one of the contenders in the NBA. Blame the schedule makers partly for this perceived problem. But Orlando, the team that has the fourth best overall record in the NBA, still lacks a defining early season win.

The road success of last season has continued and the Magic have recovered nicely from an 0-2 start. Throw some injuries to key players on top of that (the team is 3-0 since Jameer Nelson went down with an injury), and Orlando should still feel pretty fortunate with its fantastic start.

But with a trip to the TD Banknorth Garden in Boston on the horizon (try Monday) and a west coast trip looming that features games at Portland, Phoenix and Utah, and Orlando is going to need to do a little more than take advantage of games against bad teams.

No, to prove you can win in the playoffs, a team must win games against playoff-caliber opponents in the regular season.

I am sure many of the teams Orlando has played and beaten will be in the playoffs. The team won for the first time in Dallas since 1997, when the team still played at Reunion Arena. That is a sign of progress.

The Magic are a good team. You have to be a good team to be as successful against the small teams as they have been.

But consider this:

The four teams Orlando has lost to have a combined .531 win percentage (which includes a bad loss at Memphis). The 13 teams the Magic have beaten have a combined 71-138 (.340 win percentage), and only one is against a team with an above .500 record -- Toronto at 8-7.

See my point.

Yes, it is very good Orlando is feasting on the bad teams. And the schedule has not afforded Orlando many opportunities.

But that is what makes Monday's game so important. Win at Boston, and everyone knows the Magic are a real threat to an Eastern Conference title. Lose, and they are still a team that can beat those worse than them, but not a premier team.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Magic 110, Pacers 96: Howard is pretty good

Went to my first Magic game of the year tonight. The games are as good as they have ever been. The O-Rena is not rocking quite yet... but it is late November, so not too worried about the fan stuff. The show is still a lot of fun to go to.

But I digress from what is really important. The game. And this one was a doozy.

The Magic built a solid lead in the second quarter and extended it past 20 points in the third. They then had to hold on as Danny Granger caught fire to pull Indiana back to within single digits. But the team never threatened in what turned out to be an easy victory for Orlando.

It was one of those taking care of business nights. The result was really positive.

What else was really positive? I don't know. Maybe Dwight Howard's 32 points and 21 rebounds. It was a simply dominating performance.

It helped that Orlando was making a concerted effort to feed him the ball (much more than they had in the two previous games that I had watched). But he took advantage of every touch. He was 11 of 15 from the floor and very few of them were dunks. A lot of his shots came off of good post moves and very smooth-looking hook shots.

Howard has developed some touch around the basket and is not just all about his power. This is a dangerous development for the rest of the league.

Defensively, he set the tone with some blocked shots and dominated the glass. Howard was even stealing rebounds from his teammates. He was a man possessed tonight and it looked effortless at times for him.

With him off the court, Orlando struggled offensively. But Indiana had no answers and he was the pure reason why the team found itself in a hole.

Granger led the Pacers with 27 points and local product Marquis Daniels added a quiet 21. Hedo Turkoglu followed Howard with 22 points and Rashard Lewis added 24 (or maybe it is the other way around, I am too lazy to switch it... they both played well). Anthony Johnson, starting his third straight game, scored 16.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Magic Wands: November 28, 2008

-Chip Crain of the Memphis Grizzlies blog 3 Shades of Blue has a scary thought for Magic fans. He has noticed that those NBA players with player blogs have not done well. His example starts with Casey Jacobson's blog from last year (he ended up bench by December) and Mike Conley's blog (he is not doing so hot with the Grizzlies). Then, expanding the scope, he notices problem with NBA.com bloggers Gilbert Arenas (two knee surgeries since starting), Chris Kaman and Jerry Stackhouse (both trade bait at this point) and Kevin Love (sitting behind Jason Collins in Minnesota). This is all well and good... except Dwight Howard has a blog on NBA.com. Hope it is not related to the recent streak of play he has had recently.

-Power Rankings Update: the Magic are climbing the opinion polls. They are fifth now in the NBA.com Power Rankings, seventh in the Marc Stein Power Rankings. But John Hollinger and his computer poll still have the Magic 10th (at least Monday, they did). Which rankings do you follow?

-Basketball-Reference.com presents the players with the best and worst supporting casts in NBA history. Michael Cooper of the Showtime Lakers had the best offensive supporting cast, 1990s journeyman Charles Smith had the worst offensive supporting cast. Michael Jordan rose above his teammates' shortcomings the most (hurting my arguments for Bill Russell) and the Jazz's Mark Eaton did not live up to his teammates the most.

-Dwight Howard won't be dunking (as much) in Phoenix apparently. Although, I heard he still has not made a final decision.

-Happy Thanksgiving! Hope you have recovered from the enormous amounts of food you ate.

Magic 105, Wizards 90: Not much to say

Still coming down from all the turkey. But Orlando did not seem phased at all by the extra food or the back-to-back.

Dwight Howard got the Wizards big men in foul trouble early and dominated inside. It did not take long for Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis to follow.

Washington was never close. When the team did make a little bit of a comeback, Orlando stepped on the gas pedal and pulled away. It was an impressive performance -- the kind of effort you want against a 2-11 team.

Happy Thanksgiving. The Magic are playing solid basketball with a tough December on the horizon.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Magic 96, 76ers 94: Sloppy, but effective

Rashard Lewis shot seven for 17. But it was shot No. 17 and make No. 7 that mattered most to Orlando.

With four seconds left, Lewis hit a 3-pointer in the corner to give the Magic a two-point lead and an escape from Wachovia Arena with a 96-94 win.

Lewis struggled throughout the night, but finished with 19 points. His offensive struggles were symbolic of the team's overall offensive struggles. After opening a 10-point lead in the first half, Philadelphia slowly whittled away at the lead before taking it entering the fourth quarter on a half-court three by rookie Marreese Speights.

Orlando continued to struggle into the fourth quarter, despite shooting 47 percent for the entire game. The team turned the ball over 17 times and played incredibly sloppy.

Elton Brand anchored the second-half comeback with 21 points and six rebounds.

The Magic struggled to counteract the scoring threat. Dwight Howard had 21 points and 14 rebounds. Tony Battie added 20 points off the bench -- most in the first half. It was a struggle to find scoring elsewhere in the second half. Hedo Turkoglu went four for 11 and scored only 12 points (he also committed a boneheaded, over-aggressive foul that allowed Philadelphia to take a one-point lead with about 20 seconds to play).

This was my first look at the team all season (that is what I get for working outside of Orlando). And overall it was not a horrible game.

The first quarter showed the full potential of this team. The Magic were getting the ball into Howard in the low post, running effectively and playing fantastic defense. It was a great display of what the team can do.

Then it was a sloppy, turnover prone, 3-point happy team that wasted opportunities and let a worse team come back on them.

It is early in the season, so hopefully it was the quality of the opponent that led to some of the struggles. But it did not seem that way.

The problems stem from some problems with the active team. The 76ers made a big portion of their comeback by using a press when Anthony Johnson was out of the game. Courtney Lee, Turkoglu and JJ Redick are not backup point guards and for the next week it is something that will be exploited.

But a major part of the problem is that Johnson is not a starting point guard. He fills his role and is a good game manager. What Jameer Nelson does though is force action and create for others on the floor. Johnson was not doing that -- and it showed over his 37 minutes of play.

When the shots were falling, Johnson worked fine. When they were not, he and the team struggled.

In the end, this game is a win. The Magic have done a good job the last two seasons of winning games that they do not deserve to win. Orlando did its best to give this game away and then took it back at the last second.

Certainly made it better for the national television audience.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Cuttino Mobley, a heart condition?

J.A. Adande of ESPN.com is reporting that the recent trade between the Knicks and the Clippers is being held up because former Magic guard Cuttino Mobley has an apparent heard condition.

The report is saying that the Knicks raised concerns over his heart condition and are sending him to a specialist. It goes on to say that Mobley had the heart condition his entire career but it was never seen as a major issue. With Eddy Curry on their team though, don't blame the Knicks for double checking.

Mobley had a good half season in Orlando in 2004-05 season before he was traded to Sacramento for Doug Christie (trading an apparent heart case for a head case... I kid, I kid). He was a great 3-point shooter and a solid defender, making the trade somewhat of a head-scratcher.

In any case, it had a huge affect on superstar Steve Francis (writing those words , seems hilarious to me now). Francis and Mobley were good friends and Francis' play suffered significantly since the trade.

All the best to Mobley. I hope to see him in a Knicks (or Clippers) uniform later this season.

UPDATE: today the trade went through. Mobley and Tim Thomas were traded to New York for Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Bogans out 3-6 weeks

As far as injuries go, this one could have been a lot worse.

Guard Keith Bogans will miss at least the next three weeks and could be out 4-6 weeks after fracturing the thumb on his non-shooting hand during Saturday's game against Houston, Andrew Carter of The Orlando Sentinel reports.. Bogans has been the first man off the bench for Orlando this season and beat out JJ Redick and Courtney Lee for the backup shooting guard role. Bogans is averaging 6.5 points and 3.5 rebounds per game.

The Magic were pretty set at shooting guard with the signing of Mickael Pietrus, the drafting of Courtney Lee and the emergence of JJ Redick during the preseason. If someone was going to get hurt, it could be one of those four.

But don't think this injury is insignificant.

Orlando has been hit a little by the injury bug early this season. Pietrus has missed a game because of injury and Hedo Turkoglu sat out Saturday with the flu. Depth at guard has been important for the Magic's survival this season.

Losing Bogans is no death knell, but it does hurt the team. Pietrus is a good defender, but he has the propensity to foul. With Bogans out, Orlando no longer has its best perimeter defender to help out.

Redick is not the defender Bogans is and Lee has not had enough time on the court to prove he is there yet either.

It will be interesting to see what coach Stan Van Gundy does with his new lineup after the injury. Redick has been getting some favor and has thrown in a few good scoring runs. Lee though is probably closest to Bogans as far as copying his skill set defensively. I would expect both to play and get some time to show what they can do (it is a big opportunity for both players).

Van Gundy told The Orlando Sentinel that he might move Rashard Lewis to small forward more often, which could free up minutes for Marcin Gortat or Adonal Foyle, who put in his best game of the season Saturday.

Either way, this injury will have a big impact on the Magic before the All Star break -- and not just on the court.

With Bogans out, Redick can be played more and be floated out there as a trade possibility for a deadline deal. Not saying the team could get much for Redick, but it could be important to adding that vital piece for the playoff push.

Trade rumors have circled the shooting guard platoon all season. That should quiet until Bogans gets back.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Big is the new small?

Interesting note from John Hollinger on Monday.

Hollinger in his PER Diem section notes how lineups seem to be getting bigger rather than the perceive notion that they are getting smaller (think Phoenix Suns in their heyday). But Hollinger does not note that while lineups are getting bigger, players are not.

He uses the Magic's big three of Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu and Dwight Howard as poster children of this new movement. The taller players have been getting more versatile and now we are seeing this talent promise played out to its fruition in teams like Orlando, Toronto, Atlanta.

This is an odd development in the history of basketball. Teams are no longer building around the traditional big men and point guard or dominant shooting guard mode. They are now building with versatile players who can use their extreme size to their advantage.

It is catching on in the league and Orlando is at the head of this movement. The Magic are once again nearing the top of the Eastern Conference with an 8-3 record and a five-game winning streak after tonight's win in Indiana.

Big is the new small... literally. Expect this trend to continue until the next NBA revolution.

Friday, November 21, 2008

Magic Wands: November 21, 2008

-Good little nuggets from Marc Stein's Weekend Dime on ESPN.com last week. Nugget 1: Stein wonders how the Magic faithful feel about a possible return for Shaquille O'Neal as a part owner. Shaq feels the city has gotten over it... and I tend to agree. I know, as a kid, I was distraught after O'Neal left and trashed just about anything with his name or likeness on it. After years of booing and jeering him, I feel we have both matured to the point where we understand each other and our motivations. I hope other fans do too.

-Nugget 2 from the Weekend Dime: Stein was invited to help create the NBA All Star ballot. It is a tougher job than it looks. But, I still don't think Jameer Nelson should be on that list (prove me wrong!).

-Sad news for the world of basketball. Pioneer coach Pete Newell died Monday at 93. Newell is known for holding the Pete Newell camp for big men in California. He won a national championship with Cal in 1959 and won an Olympic gold medal in 1960 (with a team that featured Oscar Robertson and Jerry West). The basketball world will miss him.

-Kyle Hightower of the Orlando Sentinel noticed a lot of former players are wearing suits and ties as coaches and general managers. And, the Polish Hammer, Marcin Gortat, wins a bet with Mickael Pietrus (at the bottom of the page).

-Anyone notice how many more fights/flagrant fouls there are in the NBA these days? It is only November and we have had a full-on fight between Phoenix and Houston, Shaquille O'Neal getting suspended for a flagrant foul on Rodney Stuckey and now Kevin Garnett serving a game for a near hit on Andrew Bogut. The NBA is definitley trying to crack down on these incidents by publicly punishing these guys early and harshly. But isn't this adding more attention to a problem the NBA perceives that it has?

-Never too early to start thinking about the playoffs. Orlando premiers in John Hollinger's Playoff Odds as the No. 7 seed behind Miami and Atlanta. The Magic have not beaten anyone yet, but really? The Hawks are sliding and the Heat are good, but can they keep it up for 82 games. Orlando still has some work to do, I guess. About 71 games of it too.

-I know John Hollinger. Mickael Pietrus has been a pretty big surprise for the Magic.

-A mainstay of the NBA media force is leaving Sports Illustrated, Henry Abbott reports.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Former Magic Player of the Week: Brooks Thompson

Brooks Thompson


The Orlando Magic used their first round pick in 2004 on Oklahoma State product Brooks Thompson.

Thompson started his career at Texas A&M in 1989 and transferred after two seasons to Oklahoma State, where he made the Big Eight all-conference tournament team and was a member of the all-conference first team in 1994, playing alongside Vancouver Grizzlies great Bryant "Big Country" Reeves. He led the Cowboys in assists both seasons and averaged 16.9 points per game his senior year.

Thompson averaged 3.6 points per game in 71 appearances in two seasons with Orlando. He was part of the 1994-95 NBA Finals team, starting two games his rookie season.

The Magic traded him to the Jazz with Kenny Gattison and a future first round draft pick for Felton Spencer. Thompson played two games with Utah before going to Denver where he averaged a career high 6.8 points per game and got 16.1 minutes per game in 65 games.

He finished his playing career in 1998, playing for Phoenix and New York. He averaged 4.5 points per game in 10.2 minutes per game during his three-year career. Thompson's career high was a 26-point effort against the Suns in 1996 while with the Nuggets.

After retiring, Thompson went into coaching. In 2002 he took the jobe at Yavapi College in Prescott, Ariz., where he went 55-14 during two seasons there. He became an assistant coach with Arizona State in 2004 before accepting the head coaching job at University of Texas-San Antonio in April 2006.

Thompson led the Roadrunners to a tie for sixth place in the Southland Conference last season after going 13-17. He has a record of 20-29 overall entering his third season in San Antonio.

Image courtesy of orlandomagic.com.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Attendance problems in Orlando

Nick Friedell from Yahoo!Sports' Ball Don't Lie blog filed a great report on the state of attendance in the NBA.

With the economy as bad as it is and people not looking to spend money on luxuries -- like, say, sporting events -- NBA attendance is taking a little bit of a hit. Friedell cites one columnist who even believes some NBA teams might be thinking of suspending operations because of financial problems. I don't think this will be the case. It is November and the perception is the season does not really start until February.

But this has to be a concern for Magic fans.

With only six games so far at Amway Arena (No. 7 tonight against the Toronto Raptors might draw a few more people because of last year's playoff series), Orlando is the only team with a winning record ranked in the bottom third of the league (at No. 20).

The Magic have always had attendance problems. Ever since Shaquille O'Neal left and the sell-out streak of the mid-90s ended, it has been an up-and-down roller coaster of support in the city. Usually by playoff time, people care. But generally, they do not.

I know last spring in the playoffs, people were going nuts over a team that advanced out of the first round for the first time in 12 years. Attendance that season was not even that great.

It did not help that Orlando lost local draw Carlos Arroyo. Despite Arroyo's mediocre play, it can't be doubted he drew a significant amount of the Hispanic market of the city (that Orlando had been trying to tap in to for years) to the arena. After the team acquired him, the next three games sold out and Puerto Rican flags could be seen waving throughout the stadium. His loss hurt ticket sales this year.

Don't underestimate the passing of the Orlando Events Center legislation either in attendance. It was a controversial topic and now that it has passed, maybe fans are expecting a little more from the team and organization.

The economy is not getting better any time soon. So expect attendance numbers to drop throughout the league.

All the team can do is win and put a pleasing product on the court so when someone decides to shell out $50 for a basketball game, they will want to do it in Orlando.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Howard's bad night against the Bobcats

People went a little crazy over Dwight Howard's struggle in Charlotte on Sunday.

Howard turned in his worst game of the season scoring four points and seven rebounds in 26 foul-plagued minutes. Henry Abbott of Truehoop broke down Howard's game and (probably correctly) concluded the game was an aberration.

Everyone has an off night and everyone gets into foul trouble eventually.

What does get pointed out is Howard's tendency to "drift" when he is not involved in the offense. His problem has always been that he loses his aggression on both sides of the ball when he is not involved in the offense.

I could not watch last night's game, but that seems to be what happened. Read John Hollinger's analysis of Howard's game from the offseason -- it is pretty dead on.

While the national media is going crazy over Howard's poor game (again everyone has bad nights), the Magic somehow pulled out another win when they played poorly.

After pulling a come-from-behind victory at Dallas, Orlando again rallied for a big road victory. Again, the Magic are not beating anybody impressive quite yet, but road wins are important either way.

All starters outside of Howard scored in double figures and it seems like everyone on the team has the capability of picking up the slack of struggling players. Pulling out these games is a sign of a good team. It looks like Orlando is going to be just fine after some struggle at the start.

The poor shooting cannot continue. But like last year, a win is a win at this point. And as unimpressive as they have looked, the Magic are building confidence for another late season push.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Magic Wands: November 14, 2008

-The world famous Dunking Dancers took their show to Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kan., for the national champions' Midnight Madness. I have always found the Dunking Dancers hit or miss. Something about launching yourself off a trampoline to dunk the ball seems a whole lot of fun though.

-Courtney Lee is apparently not doing too bad, according to David Thorpe. He is slowly climbing his Rookie Rankings. Hopefully it means he will get to see the court.

-Trevor Ariza is playing well. He certainly is no Maurice Evans and Brian Cook. Ariza of course is averaging 9.4 points per game and 5.0 rebounds per game. Evans is not on Orlando any more and Cook is buried on the bench.

-Power Rankings Watch: I know these come out at the beginning of the week. But the Magic climbed in both the ESPN and NBA.com power rankings. And Dwight Howard is holding steady at No. 6 on ESPN NBA Awards Watch. He also leads their tally for Defensive Player of the Year. Now if only, the Magic could play defense as a team. And there is finally enough data for John Hollinger to rev up his Power Ranking machine. The Magic premier at 17.

-A really good look at Josh Childress' life in Greece from Mark Schwarz. Looks like it might not be a viable option for NBA players. Not until entire leagues become financially viable, at least.

-The economy is tough. Let the New Jersey Nets help you. Anyway you can get the butts in the seats. Actually Northwestern University is throwing a similar promotion for college students in December. They will have several businesses in the arena to meet with students and others around the area in a Networking Night.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Dwight Howard is Superman

I have seen a lot of things in basketball. But when I read Dwight Howard's stat line from tonight's game, my jaw just dropped.

30 points, 19 boards, 10 blocks.

Let that sink in a minute. Then watch the highlights here.

This could be one of those games you talk about for a very long time. And it happened on a night where the team and its fans had to be cautiously optimistic (as Brian Schmitz points out in his recap of the game).

Howard has been on a tear this season. You put this game in comparison with his 29 point, 16 rebound effort against Portland on Monday. And it is amazing he played so poorly in the Olympics.

I doubt he can keep up this pace for the entire season (he definitely started strong last year and then faded). But if he can play this well in the playoffs, we are looking a guy who CAN carry a team through the playoffs -- especially with the talent around him.

UPDATE: did some digging around the Media Guide.

The last triple double by a Magic player was Hedo Turkoglu's 23 point, 13 assist, 10 rebound night against Atlanta last March.

This was also not the first time blocks were used to make a triple double. Shaquille O'Neal had a 24 point, 28 rebound, 15 blocks game against New Jersey in 1993 (read about from the Magic Vault here). Still got a ways to go Dwight to catch up.

Of course, being the pessimistic Magic fan that I am becoming, I remember attending Howard's first triple double. A 21 point, 16 rebound and 11 turnover performance in a 94-87 win at Chicago on Feb. 26, 2007. Don't worry Dwight, I won't tell anyone. Shoot.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

What They're Saying: Magic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder 11/12

The Magic make their first official visit to play the Thunder in Oklahoma City tonight. After the game at Memphis earlier this season, Orlando should not be putting this one in the bank yet.

Like the Grizzlies, the Thunder are a young and energetic team with a pretty good scorer. Kevin Durant is probably more talented than Rudy Gay at that. The Magic will have to be on their toes tonight after a disappointing effort Monday against the Trail Blazers.

-Kyle Hightower of The Orlando Sentinel reports on Orlando returning to the road. Last year, the Magic had a better road record than home record. Now they get ready for their first road trip of the season (they head to Dallas and Charlotte next). For Orlando to make it back to the Southeast Division title, the team has to repeat last year's road performance.

-Brian Schmitz of The Orlando Sentinel has word that Dwight Howard might have some sort of nagging injury. I would call Dr. Doobie Howser before Dr. House though. Apparently, it is something that has bothered him since he was 15.

-Schmitz also reports Stan Van Gundy might tinker with the bench more. Expect more Courtney Lee in any event.

-John Denton of Florida Today writes that the Magic could use the upcoming road trip as a way to bond. Last year, the beginning of the schedule was very road heavy -- including a preseason trip to China -- and forced the team to come together quickly. While a three-game road trip is no monumental task (especially against the teams they are playing), it might be what the team needs to turn around and find some consistency.

-Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman reports Kevin Durant will be a game-time decision after re-aggravating a preseason ankle injury in Monday's game against Indiana.

-Developing 7-footers is tough -- See Hunter, Steven -- but here is a look at the man that will be guarding Howard tonight. The Thunder like what they see out of Robert Swift, but he is still working to live up to his potential in games, writes Mike Baldwin of The Oklahoman.

Early November returns

J.A. Adande in the Daily Dime on ESPN.com today made an interesting point about the first month of the season. The cream rises to the top quickly. The best teams for most of the season start strong and rarely fade out of the playoff picture.

Maybe Magic fans should worry because one of the teams he focuses on are the 6-0 Atlanta Hawks. But it is an interesting point to consider. Orlando has always done decently in November -- December is usually the team's bad month because of the West Coast road trip thrown in there.

But being curious, here is Orlando's records from November (and October) the past 19 years by win percentage and that team's final record.

1995-96: 13-2 (60-22, conference finals No. 2)
1994-95: 10-2 (57-25, Finals No. 1)
2007-08: 14-4 (52-30, conf. semis No. 3)
2006-07: 12-4 (40-42, first round No. 8)
1992-93: 8-3 (41-41, missed playoffs)
1998-99*: 10-4 (33-17, first round No. 3)
1996-97: 8-4 (45-37, first round No. 7)
1997-98: 10-6 (41-41, missed playoffs)
2004-05: 8-5 (36-46, missed playoffs)
2002-03: 10-7 (42-40, first round No. 8)
1993-94: 6-5 (50-32, first round No. 4)
1989-90: 7-7 (18-64, missed playoffs)
2005-06: 7-7 (36-46, missed playoffs)
1999-2000: 7-8 (41-41, missed playoffs)
2001-02: 7-9 (44-38, first round No. 5)
1991-92: 6-8 (21-61, missed playoffs)
2000-01: 5-11 (43-39, first round No. 5)
1990-91: 3-12 (31-51, missed playoffs)
2003-04: 1-16 (21-61, missed playoffs)
*1998-99 season began in February because of lockout.

Notice a little pattern there?

The team's three best seasons (1996, 1995 and 2008) had the best starts. Every where else is sort of hit or miss. But if Orlando wants to be an elite team, it takes a great start to get there.

The Magic's current record is 4-3. Not impressing anyone. You certainly can make the playoffs with a bad start as the data shows. It just becomes a lot tougher to earn a higher seeding in the playoffs and advance to the finals.

Here is a look at the start for the past five NBA Champions. Interesting stuff to note.

2008 Boston Celtics - 13-2 (finished 66-16)
2007 San Antonio Spurs - 11-5 (finished 58-24)
2006 Miami Heat - 9-6 (finished 52-30)
2005 San Antonio Spurs - 12-3 (finished 59-23)
2004 Detroit Pistons - 12-6 (finished 54-28)

Anything is possible but it is clear getting off to a good start is key to winning a title.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Solving the bench problem

A lot has been made of Orlando's bench this season.

It started with the surprise run of JJ Redick in the preseason and the perceived lack of depth behind Jameer Nelson. Then it exploded with the eight-man rotation Stan Van Gundy has used throughout the first week of the season.

Believe the writers when they make such a big deal out of this. A good bench is key to a good season.

A good bench gives the starters plenty of rest. A good bench lifts a team in the dredges of the season. A good bench is a tradeable asset.

A good bench, the Magic do not have.

The Redick experiment has completely failed. Keith Bogans has come off the bench and become a more consistent producer. Tony Battie does what Tony Battie does -- which is not much statistically.

Other than that, the bench is not very productive. This puts an incredible amount of pressure in the starters to score.

That clearly can work, but Dwight Howard is not going to score 29 and grab 16 every night and Hedo Turkoglu will not get 35 a night either. Then again, Rashard Lewis will not struggle like he did last night.

As it stands now, those three players are carrying the team -- like they did last year. And they need help and more than Mickael Pietrus and Jameer Nelson can give.

The Magic are going to get killed by opponents' benches. And it is going to reflect in scores pretty soon. We already saw it happen against Portland.

But the real effect will not happen until game 30, 50 and 80. Howard is a horse, but even a horse gets tired. Orlando has been incredibly lucky with injuries the last few years. That luck will run dry if Howard and Turkoglu have to continue to play 40 minutes per game.

The bench has to begin producing at a higher and more consistent rate. But Van Gundy also has to start playing more bench players.

The season is a marathon, not a sprint. But Orlando is running it like a sprint to the end. The starters need a break and the bench needs to step up for the Magic to make a run at the Eastern Conference title.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Magic Wands: November 7, 2008

-Looks like our sister team fell the expansion bug too. The Orlando Magic were infamously the first victims of the Charlotte Bobcats in 2005. Now the Minnesota Timberwolves are the first victims to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Chin up guys, someone had to be first.

-Weekly Power Ranking Check: NBA.com (15, down five spots), ESPN.com (16, down three spots).

-Remember when Josh Childress bolted the NBA for Greece? Yeah, I am not trying to think about that either. But the economic hard times in the U.S. not only have players and David Stern thinking internationally, but also other athletes. Phil Mickelson is apparently being enticed by the larger purses of European Tour events to consider jumping across the pond. This could be an interesting trend in sports.

-Also an American first (but not for soccer), David Beckham is on loan to AC Milan from the Los Angeles Galaxy. Is the world of American sports moving toward players as tradeable commodities moving to an interleague and international stage?

-So Dwight Howard is not the greatest writer in the world and maybe giving him a blog was not such a great idea. It is nice to see his more playful side. He is not liking a lot of people after they said bad things about him after the team's 0-2 start. Do not worry Dwight, we know you do a lot for the community and you deserve that awesome new house. Just block all those bad comments -- or use them as motivation for another 29-point performance.

-The Magic have not had an MVP candidate since Tracy McGrady in 2003. Dwight Howard might change all that. He is seventh on the Race to the MVP list on ESPN.com. Not to eliminate himself completely, he seems to be the frontrunner for defensive player of the year with his display of blocking prowess so far this season.

-Speaking of award winners. If defending Most Improved Player Hedo Turkoglu were in the running for an award it would be least improved player. Turkoglu is averaging 17.3 points per game this season but is shooting only 29 percent from beyond the 3-point line. His poor performance Monday against the Bulls drew the ire of coach Stan Van Gundy.

-Van Gundy said Turkoglu came to camp out of shape and "when he gets a little tired, he doesn't want to do anything except jack up jumpers." Them's fighting words. I think Van Gundy is trying to light a fire under Turkoglu like he did with Howard last year. I do not know if Turkoglu is the type to respond to harsh criticism like Howard is. But we will find out. Either way, it still looks like Orlando will not be able to resign Turkoglu and if he continues to struggle it might be time to see what the team can get for him.

-Now we know why most owners vote Republican. Good thing Drew Rosenhaus is not in the NBA.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

What They're Saying: Magic vs. 76ers 11/6

Orlando gets its first crack in front of a national television audience against Philadelphia tonight. It could be very ugly if the Magic continue playing the way they are playing.

Or it could be really ugly if the 76ers play the way they have been playing. Philadelphia is a turnover-prone team and has stumbled out to a 2-3 start despite the high profile signing of Elton Brand.

Matchup to Watch: Dwight Howard vs. Elton Brand. They may not be matched up directly at the beginning of the game, but by the end (if it is close), it will come down to who can make plays -- Howard or Brand. Howard still seems to be on a tear from two difficult losses to start the season. He has had some success against Philadelphia, but this will be his first time going up against its new front line.

-As mentioned before, both teams are really struggling. One thing that needs to change for both teams to fulfill their lofty preseason expectations is to fix their turnover problems. Matt Beardmore of STATS writes on NBA.com has a pretty comprehensive preview of tonight's game, including a good stat about how Jameer Nelson has almost as many turnovers (11) as assists (14) so far.

-Free agents have transformed a couple teams in recent years from pretenders to contenders. Kyle Hightower of The Orlando Sentinel takes alook at how the Brand and Rashard Lewis signings have raised expectations for the teams in tonight's game.

-Brian Schmitz of The Orlando Sentinel further writes that if the Magic are to make some headway, November is the time. Orlando is in the midst of a five-game home stand right now and the team's first extensive road trip is not that difficult. Plus, JJ Redick will not be the first one off the bench tonight after Keith Bogans' strong game against Chicago.

-Stan Van Gundy admits it is a little early for a must-win game. But tonight's nationally-televised matchup against another up-and-coming team should get the Magic's blood growing, John Denton of Florida Today writes. At least Van Gundy hopes it will get them fired up.

-Former Florida player Marreesse Speights has become a fan favorite in Philadelphia... even if he is not getting any playing time yet, Kate Fagan of The Philadelphia Inquirer writes. Coach Maurice Cheeks did say that whenever Speights goes in, good things happen -- mostly because he has only played in blowout wins.

-It has been a while since both Orlando and Philadelphia mattered enough to be on national television. I know I am excited to get the chance to watch the Magic on national television several times this season. And apparently so are Sixers fans. Jsams over at Liberty Ballers, a 76ers blog, is very very excited to see his team in HD tonight.

-No wonder the Bulls could not complete an improbable late game comeback Monday night. Chicago's offense seems confused and frustrated, KC Johnson of the Chicago Tribune writes after the team's 107-93 loss at Cleveland. The Bulls have always needed a primary scoring option and that seems to be hurting this team more than ever (maybe they should have taken Michael Beasley, no matter how good Derrick Rose is playing right now).

Prediction: the Magic seem to be heading in the right direction after a solid victory over the Bulls. But there were plenty of things to be worried about from that game. Turnovers will be an issue for both teams in this incredibly ugly basketball game.

The game will come down to whether Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu can take care of the ball. They have both started extremely slow. The Sixers are as likely to score 100 points as they are 80 (as they showed in a 106-83 loss to the Heat last night).

But the Magic have not shown they are consistent enough this season to beat a top team. Expect Philadelphia to come in to Amway Arena a lot more focused than they were last night. The Magic desperately need a wake-up call and another morale-shattering loss could be in the works very soon.

Philadelphia edges Orlando out in this one thanks to Andre Iguodala and Andre Miller taking care of the ball better than the Magic.

76ers 100, Magic 93

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Orlando Magic on Election Day

Make sure you go out and vote today. Florida is a pretty important state, so make your vote count (more than others, at least).

Nov. 6, 1992: the Magic did not play their first game of the season until after Bill Clinton's victory over incumbent George H. W. Bush. But Orlando did make a premier of its own. Rookie Shaquille O'Neal scored 12 points and grabbed 18 rebounds.

But it was Nick Anderson showing why he was the Magic's elder statesmen as he dropped a career-high 42 points, including 19 in the fourth quarter, to lead Orlando to a 113-110 win over the Heat.

Nov. 1, 1996: the Magic were not as lucky (OK, luck had nothing to do with it) as incumbent Clinton in their first game of the season in 1996. Playing the Washington Bullets without Dennis Scott, Gerald Wilkins' game-tying 3-pointer was ruled a two when the referees determined Wilkins' foot was on the line and Orlando fell short 96-92 to the Bullets.

Clinton survived the Magic's loss and won re-election.

Nov. 6, 2000: no recount was needed at the Orlando Arena as the Magic raced past the Supersonics with a 110-99 victory. Still looking for its identity after signing Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill, who was out with an injury (figures), during the summer, some key role players had big games.

John Amaechi (from England, so he could not vote the next day) scored 20 points as did Darrell Armstrong.

We all know what happened the next day in Florida.

Nov. 3, 2004: Steve Francis got to the hoop and made a lay-up as time expired to give the Magic a thrilling 93-92 opening-game victory over the Bucks. Dwight Howard finished with 12 points and 10 rebounds in his first NBA game.

George W. Bush pulled a Francis as he narrowly defeated John Kerry for re-election the day before.

Nov. 3, 2008: one day before Barack Obama and John McCain squared off in the general election. The Magic built to 15-point leads against the Chicago Bulls. Obama's hometown team climbed back both times and nearly tied the game. But somehow Orlando held on 96-93 thanks to 22 points and 15 boards from Howard.

Who will win today's election? Think of this:

In the above games, the Magic went 4-1. What does that mean for Obama and McCain, absolutely nothing! But it is interesting to note Orlando was home for each one of the above games. I guess you have to keep your voters in Florida.

Monday, November 3, 2008

What They're Saying: Magic vs. Bulls 11/3

-It is early in the season, but those whispers you heard at the beginning of the season about Orlando's weak bench are definitely getting louder. Brian Schmitz dives into tonight's matchup of the benches and why the Magic's bench stats are not strong.

-Remember when Mickael Pietrus was the best defensive thing since sliced bread? Me neither. But the Magic did sign him to be their defensive stopper. So far, he is struggling to get into a good defensive rhythm and adjusting to the team's defensive scheme. Expect more Keith Bogans.

-Orlando has had problems against opposing point guards in the past. Tonight the Magic get their first crack at No. 1 draft pick Derrick Rose. K.C. Johnson of The Chicago Tribune looks at how Rose is adjusting to the NBA with flying colors - learning how to temper his emotions and playing like a veteran on and off the court just three games into his career. He should win Rookie of the Year at least according to Mike McGraw of the Daily Herald.

Ding Dong Billups is Gone

All the munchkins from Orlando Magic-land can come out of hiding. Dorothy might have crushed the Pistons.

After five straight appearances into the Eastern Conference Finals, Joe Dumars shook up the Detroit roster in a big way. Dumars traded Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess and Cheikh Samb to Denver for Allen Iverson.

Iverson is no friend of the Magic either, but he has not killed Orlando like Billups has. Billups has been a thorn in the team's side since the 2005 Playoffs when he helped Detroit erase a 3-1 deficit. Every time since then it seems that Billups is the primary offensive option against the smaller Jameer Nelson.

Now he is gone. In steps Iverson.

Iverson nominally makes the team better. But I think it is a significant downgrade for the Pistons. Iverson is not the distributor and playmaker Billups is. In fact he needs the ball more.

I think it hurts Richard Hamilton a lot. He needs a good distributor to set up his cuts and runs at the basket. It also turns Tayshaun Prince into a spot-up shooter.

The move makes the Pistons' control of the division very tenuous. I do not think Cleveland is that great, but they can certainly challenge Detroit for the division title this season.

For the Magic, it means there might be less fear of seeing the Pistons in the playoffs. They will still be a bruising team, but the offense will be much easier to predict and maybe control. If Orlando can get out of its current funk, the team should be better than Detroit this season.

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