Next year might be this year

It seems for 19 seasons (with very little exceptions), Orlando has waited for next season for things to get better. In the Tracy McGrady-era it was wait until Grant Hill is healthy. Early on it was wait for a big signing or some lucky ping pong balls. Up until last year, fans waited for Dwight Howard's maturity.

But probably for the first time since the Magic went to the Finals in 1995, expectations can realistically be raised for this team.

Orlando's improbably 52-win season and Southeast Division championship last season set several benchmarks for the franchise. It was the realization of three years of building and the coming together of the right pieces at the right time.

Hedo Turkoglu finally realized his potential. Howard fulfilled (a fraction) of his. Rashard Lewis was the big free agent signing that boosted a mediocre team. Stan Van Gundy was the coach that put the team over the top.

Now this team has expectations to get better. And this year might be THE year for something special to happen.

Guards: clearly the one weakness on the team. Jameer Nelson had a fantastic postseason, but during the season he was average at best. The point guard position was propped up by a career year by Keyon Dooling.

Van Gundy always had Dooling as a fall back plan when Nelson struggled. It is Nelson's show now.

I have always doubted Nelson as a starting point guard. He is serviceable, but his injury problems and defensive ability (read: height) have always cast some doubt in my mind. But the team will find out if it smartly invested its money in Nelson as the starter.

The big issue is depth. Anthony Johnson is also a run-of-the-mill player. I do not have confidence that he can change games off the bench.

The Mickael Pietrus signing is an incredibly big signing for Orlando. He is a versatile player who was always put out of position under Don Nelson in Golden State. Pietrus has shown some defensive ability and shooting ability -- more than replacing Maurice Evans. The real question is can he do it for an entire season?

It seems the Magic are locked in on Pietrus and believe he can give them more than Evans did last season (and I believe that too). But he has not done that yet. It leaves Orlando in the same position as they were last year starting Keith Bogans. The Magic hope he can drastically improve and live up to some potential but might be happy (or stuck with) the level he was producing at earlier.

The bench is a nice amalgamation of players. Keith Bogans is a solid defender and good 3-point shooter. JJ Redick can shoot (and has not shown he can do much else). Courtney Lee is the highly coveted draft pick.

There is going to be some good competition in this group for sure. Van Gundy should feel relatively confident putting any three of these guys out there. None of them will wow you (or really push Pietrus for minutes), but they should get the job done.

Forwards: Turkoglu and Lewis worked well together last year and there is no reason to think they will not again this season.

Turkoglu finally showed the aggression everyone was waiting for him to show. That should attract more defenses to him this season. And the double-edged sword attacks again. Lewis has said publicly that he deferred a lot last year.

If this preseason has been any indication, Lewis is going to be much better in year two. He was attacking the basket and scoring a lot more in the preseason games.

Either way you look at it, Turkoglu and Lewis combined should have better seasons. Teams will not which player to guard and whoever is open will take advantage of it. I expect Turk's numbers to drop a little and Lewis' numbers to increase.

But it is a net gain for Orlando.

Center: this was one of the weakest positions depth-wise last year. Now Orlando has a good stable of big men behind Howard.

Howard is going to do what he does: make thunderous dunks, clean up under the rim, rebound and block shots. His offense should improve again this year. If he becomes a more consistent offensive option, the Magic can compete with anyone in the playoffs.

What Detroit killed Orlando with was physical play underneath and aggressive double teams at Howard.

That should not happen if the big men behind Howard improve. Tony Battie is a solid player who will draw defenses away from Howard. But how he comes back from injury is a big question mark again for Orlando. Marcin Gortat also needs to improve to take pressure off Howard.

Prediction: the Magic did not really improve themselves this year. There are marginal improvements in certain areas, but losses in others. The Southeast Division is not that strong and they should still win that. But expecting the team to challenge for a championship (barring something amazing) might be unrealistic -- but the team should not stop belieiving, it is certainly possible.

A realistic expectation is to make it back to the second round and have a better showing than a five-game exit.

Record: 50-32
Finish: 1st, Southeast Division
Playoff Finish: Second Round
NBA Champions: Los Angeles Lakers