Thinking lockout

I think everyone is overreacting a little to this, but then again I am optimistic that the economy will turn around quicker than most think. But the possibility of an NBA lockout could happen when the collective bargaining agreement runs out in 2011.

A few good reads on this pressing issue.

Bill Simmons wrote his All-Star column on the NBA's financial future (which is looking much worse than other sports because of where owners have their money tied into).

Marc Stein created a nice synopsis of the situation in last weekend's Daily Dime.

Then Mike Bianchi of The Orlando Sentinel decided to go doomsday on us all in Wednesday's paper. And Mike Thomas discusses the new economics of arena-building. Something the Magic should be paying attention to with their new building rising out of the ground in downtown. He is very anti-Magic, but he makes some interesting points and knows more about the economy than Bianchi.

Look, a lockout is very possible. But I think everyone learned their lessons from the 1999 situation. The NBA has fought a long way to get back. But something DOES need to change. It is clear that the business model for the NBA is not working as it should.

Contracts have gotten out of control. Teams are committed to bad deals for far too long and people have found ways to work around the system.

Whether it means going to a hard salary cap and getting rid of guaranteed contracts, much like the NFL. Or tweaking the current salary cap system -- it is currently tied to league revenue -- I do not know. I am not a business major. But something needs to be done. Because it seems like catastrophe has hit the NBA in the first major recession since the salary cap was implemented.

David Stern is a smart guy and he will get it figured out. I think he and the owners will be pretty steadfast on their demands for more financial security. But I also think the players will understand that the economic model does not work. If they don't, this might be a long fight that could cost us another NBA season.

And that is something the league cannot afford under any circumstances.