Friday, May 15, 2009

JJ Redick should be starting

It is no secret, JJ Redick had another bad shooting night in Game Six. He shot 0 for 7 and even missed a free throw. It has not been a great shooting series for him either. He is shooting at a 28.9 percent clip this series and averaging 6.5 points per game.

So why oh why would I continue to say Redick should start ahead of nearly season-long starter Courtney Lee?

Redick entered this league as a sharpshooter and that is still probably his best skill -- no matter how poorly he shoots. But he has developed into a pretty decent defensive player and the job he has done on Ray Allen has been quite good.

A look at Allen's stats, the player Redick has been assigned to guard at the beginning of games at least, reveals some of the answers.

Allen shot a paltry two for 11 in Game Six last night and is shooting 30.7 percent from the field in the series. He has hit on only 13.9 percent of his 3-pointers. This season, Allen shot 39.8 percent from beyond the 3-point arc and is widely considered to be one of the best shooters in the league right now (I know I marveled at his shot during pre-game warmups in Game Four).

The Connecticut product certainly had some big games against the Bulls in the first round and was certainly not slumping entering this series. So why has he struggled?

Part of the reason has to be Redick. Redick has done a great job keeping up with Allen as he runs off countless screens and has done a great job crowding Allen and forcing him to catch the balls in areas where he is not comfortable shooting or not ready to shoot.

Credit some of the team defense for that too. Dwight Howard, or whoever is guarding the last Allen pick on the perimeter has done a good job hedging out to him to discourage a pass or give Redick time to get to him.

Even when Allen has been open, Orlando has done enough to throw him off rhythm or even second guess himself. Allen certainly has not done a good enough job attacking the rim.

But Redick deserves more credit than I think a lot more people want to give him for his defensive job on Allen.

During the regular season, Redick had an allowed eFG% of 46.3 percent. Not too bad. And according to the stats used in a Fantasy League I am in that uses deeper level stats, he has had a -1.6 percent impact on opponent's eFG% (don't know if you will be able to access this, but there is the link anyway. If you are into this sort of things, I highly suggest contacting Ben and getting in one of the test leagues, it is a LOT of fun. The Web site is xohoops.com).

The +/- in this series has also been interesting to look at.

Redick has a +0 this series, including a +20 in Orlando's blowout win in Game Three. That is not great for a starter, but you are not expecting to get a whole lot of point production from Redick whether he is starting or not.

Ray Allen on the other hand has had some wild swings. Overall, he is -4 for the series. He had some great games, including a +19 in Game Two -- the only game really where he found it easy to score. But he also had some miserable games, including a -15 in Game One.

The bottom line is that it is tough to say whether the Celtics are getting more production with Allen on the floor. And that can be credited to the job the defense has done on him. It starts with Redick.

Now, Redick certainly should not be on the floor at the end of games. His shot is simply not falling right now and Courtney Lee is a much better (or more versatile) offensive option.

But Redick, I think, really sets the tone for the type of defense the Magic want to play against Allen. The fact that he himself is a shooter who uses similar strategies, I think, helps too.

There is no reasont to change what is already working. Redick will most likely return to the bench for the next round as Orlando will opt for the more physical Courtney Lee on LeBron James. But for now, Redick is doing a great job on Allen and is deserving of the playing time he is getting.

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