Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Keys to the Series: Orlando Magic vs. Los Angeles Lakers

1) Impose your style: the big matchup everyone is talking about in advance of the NBA Finals is how Orlando is going to contain Pau Gasol with Rashard Lewis in the post and conversely how Gasol is going to keep track of Lewis on the perimeter. It is a very interesting matchup between two all stars and one that will likely determine each individual game.

The simple answer is that whichever team makes the other adjust will win.

Dwight Howard has done a great job against the Lakers this season. Why? Both times he got Andrew Bynum in foul trouble in the first quarter and more or less knocked him out of the game. Bynum's stat line against Orlando says it all: 8.5 points, 2.0 rebounds and 22.5 minutes per game in the two meetings this year. Plus he shot seven of 17 from the floor.

Bynum is not having the greatest postseason either. So if Howard can knock him out of the game because of foul trouble, it forces Gasol (who is a better post defender than Bynum and a much smarter and more seasoned player) to cover Howard and forces Lamar Odom into the game.

This could be good or bad, depending on the type of game Odom is having. But Lewis will have a difficult time shooting over Gasol on offense -- luckily he has taken to driving to the hoop more -- and defending him in the post. Gasol is quicker and smarter than Glen Davis or Anderson Varejao and will not be as easy to take advantage of as those two.

Thus it is even more important to get a more favorable matchup for him and force the Lakers to play the Magic's style. If Orlando lets Los Angeles keep two posts in the game, it makes it easier for them to double Howard, to pack the paint against drives and to force Orlando into becoming a jump shooting team.

2) Use the LeBron defense as the Kobe defense: easier said then done and LeBron James did have an incredible series until he ran out of gas in Game Six. But the same principal applies.

Orlando must make Kobe Bryant a scorer. He is not going to get to the hole as much as James and he is a much better shooter. Orlando survived two big Bryant games this season and earned the sweep. Bryant averaged 34.5 points and 7.0 assists per game in the two meetings. More importantly, the Magic forced him to take 27.0 shots per game to get those points. He has to become a volume shooter in this series for the Magic to win.

Don't think Kobe will make it easy for the Magic to do. He now has plenty of video of the team's strategy to guard James at his disposal and he will find some little weakness in Orlando's defense. It will be extremely difficult to copy the defensive performance the team did against the Cavaliers. Plus the Lakers have a better supporting cast surrounding their superstar.

But despite the better supporting cast, Kobe is still the one that makes the team go. If Orlando can force him to be a volume shooter than it makes it less likely that he will be passing to his teammates.

Again, this strategy may or may not work if Bryant is both shooting the ball at an efficient rate AND the Lakers are running their offense through Gasol in the low post.

Orlando has to do a good enough job in the first couple games to force Bryant to become a volume shooter and hurt his team by taking away its offensive fluidity.

3) Don't be satisfied: I was too young to remember too much from the 1995 NBA Finals (I was what six?). But reading retrospectives on the team and analysis from that time period and it is clear Orlando was happy just to reach the Finals. Beating the Pacers was an accomplishment and the season was a success.

The Houston Rockets, on the other hand, were an experienced title team and expected to win another championship.

Sounds eerily familiar.

I will not lie. Making the NBA Finals is a tremendous accomplishment for this team and this franchise. I would consider this season a success whether Orlando wins or loses this series.

But opportunities like this do not come around often -- as the 1995 team learned when Michael Jordan returned, led his Bulls team to a NBA record 72 wins and an NBA championship. Shaquille O'Neal left and the rest is history.

The team cannot be satisfied with just reaching this point (even if some fans are... look at those season ticket sales after Saturday's game). It has to consider this a once in a lifetime opportunity and something not to be squandered. After all, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett are both waiting in the wings salivating over the opportunities next year provides.

The Magic's window will be open for a while, but you cannot play like it is when you are in the Finals. This is the only opportunity that matters.

Orlando cannot get discouraged after a loss in this series (especially if it is in Game One) and has to continue to fight and claw on each possession.

Stan Van Gundy has done a great job inspiring this team and they always seem to find a way to eke out wins. I have said this numerous times, but this is the sign of a great team. I have complete faith the Magic will not be satisfied and will adjust to anything the Lakers throw at them.

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