Friday, June 26, 2009

Let the Vincesanity Begin

I did not want to post on Vince Carter last night. I needed the night to sleep on the deal and figure out what I really thought. Because once the deal happened, I thought the worst.

Those feelings have subsided somewhat. But still linger.

Orlando, after years of flirting and tempting, acquired Daytona Beach's -- and Orlando resident -- Vince Carter from the New Jersey for Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Tony Battie. The pieces the Magic gave up in this deal can be addresses in a moment. But what does Carter bring the Magic?

Carter is a guy who can still score 20 points a night on any given night. He scored 20.8 points per game last year and played in 80 games. He's not a bad rebounder, averaging around six a game, and not a bad passer, averaging around five a game.

I try to think of it as a step-up replacement for Hedo Turkoglu.

He can shoot the ball, score on his own and drive the ball. Orlando has not had a scorer like him since his cousin Tracy McGrady was playing at the Amway Arena. He may not be able to work the pick and roll like Turkoglu could, but he is an incredible option to add to this team.

Here are the things that have always unsettled me about Carter.

He is a high-shot guy. He shot the ball 16.8 times last season and 16.9 the year before. For his career he is averaging 19.2 shots per game. A lot of that is a product of having to carry a lot of bad teams in Toronto and New Jersey. But like McGrady, he is a guy who is likely to take the ball down the court, pull up and shoot a three. When they go in, great. When they don't... ugh.

He is not a high percentage guy either. He has rarely shot better than 45 percent in his career. Again, that is part of him having to carry some bad teams.

The other thing is you have to question his defensive effort sometimes. According to 82games.com, the effective field goal percentage when he is on the court is 51.3 percent. Not very good. Hedo Turkoglu was playing at a 46.2 percent clip.

Some of that might be a product of Orlando being a better defensive team. But the difference is pretty stark. The Magic traded offense for defense in this trade.

And that is what concerns me most of all. Carter has had his effort questioned before -- remember how he exited Toronto? I think coming home will inspire him to play the best ball he can ply. But he is also on the downside of his career.

A lot of different things have to happen now for the Magic to reach the Finals.

First, they need to find a new starting small forward. I like Mickael Pietrus coming off the bench, so the Magic need a good defender to take the first turns at LeBron James, Kobe Bryante, etc. Pietrus likes to get injured and the Magic cannot rely on a Carter-JJ Redick defensive combo.

This is why I don't like this deal. Orlando gave up young and promising Courtney Lee. Lee did everything right this season. He was the best defender on the team for much of the season, hit the 3-pointers when he got them and looked to attack. He never played outside himself and played his role masterfully.

Lee will be missed more than anything. And I think the Magic will regret this part of the deal.

Second, they need to re-sign Marcin Gortat. Ryan Anderson is a nice player, but as his stat line show -- 7.4 points per game, 39.3 FG%, 36.5 3FG% -- he is not the greatest fit at small forward. With Battie gone, it appears the Magic are committed to re-upping with Gortat.

Turkoglu is gone, so forget about re-signing him. The Magic need Gortat and a small forward who can start this summer. Still some work to do.

This deal is good in the fact it does provide Orlando with a great scorer. I think Carter will find offensive success in the Stan Van Gundy system. But the Magic will still need a healthy Jameer Nelson and a more aggressive Rashard Lewis to make all this work. Not to mention an improved Dwight Howard.

The defense is still what worries me about this deal. I think Carter will play inspired ball to win a title for his hometown team. But will that be enough? Even in his prime, he was not a great defender.

The Magic won last year on defense. The defense took a big hit yesterday.

This move seemed very reactionary to me. It seemed like Orlando felt like it needed to ensure the team could replace Turkoglu after San Antonio and Cleveland made its trades to gear up for a title run.

It might work out, it might not. I still need to be sold with what happens on the court.

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