Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Orlando Magic and the Year of High Expectations

To say expectations are high in the Magic Kingdom is an understatement.

Dwight Howard said entering the season how sparse the crowds were his rookie season and how the team's play has transformed the town. Superman said at one point this summer how he wants the Magic to be the way the world learns about Orlando the city and not just the airport you go to get to Disney.

Those are some lofty goals. Whether those are accomplished who knows? But one thing the team can definitely control is what happens on the court. And on the court only one result will do after reaching the team's second Finals and first in 14 years.

But even with that lofty goal, uncertainty still remains. Typically when a championship is in sight it seems pretty sure that at least the Conference Finals will be reached. But with Orlando some uncertainty remains.

Part of that is the improvement from Boston and Cleveland -- who both looked a little slow and unathletic in their matchup last night. Those two teams reloaded in certain ways to test the Magic but we will not know anything until they play in May.

But unlike those two teams, Orlando made significant changes to its core. Gone are Hedo Turkoglu and Courtney Lee. In are Vince Carter, Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass.

There will be at least two new starters in tonight's opening day lineup and there is five new guys in the 10-man rotation that Stan Van Gundy is expected to use. That is a lot of change and change is not always good.

That is the big question facing the Magic. How do you integrate Vince Carter into the offense and, more importantly, into the defense?

Carter has the skills to add a lot to the offense. He is a scorer plain and simple -- something Orlando has not had since Tracy McGrady was traded. When things break down, he will create and score. As he proved in the preseason he can also space the floor well with his shooting.

He has a reputation that precedes him for sure. And that worries me more on the defensive end. Van Gundy has gotten Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu to play top-level defense with the promise of Howard to bail them out behind him and it worked.

The Magic had one of the top defenses in the league last year and that more than anything piloted them to the NBA Finals. He will have to get Vince to buy in for anything to be successful.

More than anything else, each of Orlando's moves seemed to improve the team. Whereas Boston and Cleveland seemed to make moves to respond and make a splash, Orlando added quality role players to supplement its starters.

Brandon Bass is a tough-nosed player who will do the dirty work and help Howard on the boards against the more physical teams like the Celtics. Not only that, but he has a more than consistent mid-range game that will keep opponents honest and allow Howard room to work.

Ryan Anderson is a clone of Rashard Lewis in his shooting ability and has some toughness and ability to work inside. Matt Barnes is a tough defender who can also drain the 3-pointer and,, as we have learned in the preseason, do a little bit of everything.

These acquisitions should help the Magic off the bench -- an area they struggled in for much of last season.

But the starters are nothing to laugh at either.

The expectations for Howard do not need to be mentioned. Everyone is expecting the soon-to-be 24 year old to continue his offensive improvement. He is already the top defender in the league around the basket and a deterrent at the rim.

And realistically Jameer Nelson is returning from missing half of last season. He was a shell of his former self in the NBA Finals last year. He is an efficient facilitator in the offense and knows when to attack and when to get everyone else involved. He made an All Star leap last year and while it might be expected that he takes a step bakc, it would not surprise if he kept up at that level.

More than anything this team is hungry. They had to watch the Lakers celebrate a title on their home court -- an embarassment if you ask me. Not only that, they have had every national pundit pretty much write them off again as some fluke or beneficiary of luck. It is hard to believe, but this team is flying under the radar among the title contenders.

I think the stars are aligned for Orlando to make a repeat trip to the Finals and face Los Angeles (Lakers). I see the Magic having some trouble in a series with the Celtics, but ultimately their depth and relentless offensive pressure will wear on any team in a seven-game series.

Orlando went out and fixed one of its major deficiencies in signing Brandon Bass. I think he becomes key in a series with Boston or Los Angeles as the second tough guy to throw at some of the bigger front lines.

It is tough to predict all the way out to June and I think a Magic-Lakers series is a tight one (and not a tight five games, I believe a tight six or seven games). But like in that series, I have to go with my heart.

The expectations are a championship. And I firmly believe this is the year Orlando wins the title.

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