Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Western Conference Preview

While the Eastern Conference has certainly made a case in the last few seasons to claim some type of equality, the Western Conference top-to-bottom is still better. Sorry guys.

The West once again proved its dominance by have .500 teams miss the playoffs while under .500 teams made the Eastern Conference playoffs. Point taken.

That trend will continue. But the balance at the top has certainly changed. The East has won three of the past six NBA titles and arguably has three of the best four teams in the NBA. But one of those three from the West is the Los Angeles Lakers. And the Lakers, it can be argued only got better.

The three beasts of the Eastern Conference certainly got better to try and compete with the Lakers.

But while the Lakers are the class of the West, San Antonio also put in all of its chips to try and battle the Lakers and make one last run at a title. Tim Duncan's career, or at least his prime, is nearing an end and Manu Ginobili's injury problems have kept San Antonio from meeting expectations.

The Spurs certainly have the know-how to get back to championship contention. But do not sleep on Denver. A lot of things went right for the Nuggets to get to the Western Conference Finals -- including avoiding the Spurs in the second round. But with Chauncey Billups at the point and a continually improving Carmelo Anthony, the Nuggets could still get better.

Unlike the other contenders, Denver did not make any significant moves to improve. That might hurt them in the postseason. But, then again, stability might be OK for a team that is still learning how to win. The Nuggets still have some holes though and continued growth could get them over the hump.

Those sitting in the pack and waiting might be teams like Portland and Utah. The Trail Blazers took a big step in qualifying for the postseason, but struggled with the pressure on against the Rockets. Portland has the talent to return to the postseason and make some noise. The question is will the young players continue to grow and is Andre Miller enough veteran leadership to get them there?

The Jazz had a disappointing season too. But with Deron Williams at the point, the Jazz can always be dangerous. Carlos Boozer, despite his trade request, is still a pretty darn good player when healthy. Memo Okur and Paul Milsap will continue to create a pretty formidable front line. Of course, health is always an issue with the Jazz.

But in the end, this is the Lakers' conference to lose. Los Angeles has one of two best players in the league in Kobe Bryant, a pretty solid and versatile front line in Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol and a solid secondary scorer in Ron Artest. Artest will not provide the versatility that Trevor Ariza did, but he should be able to take some of the scoring and defensive pressure off Bryant.

1. Lakers: the champs got better in adding Ron Artest and will bring back a healthy Andrew Bynum. Plus Kobe Bryant is pretty decent at basketball. The defending champs are just that until someone knocks them off.

2. Nuggets: Denver is good. They have been the sleeping giant, waiting for the crafty veteran to make Carmelo Anthony serious instead of the egotistic veteran to keep Anthony selfish. Chauncey Billups is one of the best point guards of the last decade and with another good year in Denver should get serious Hall of Fame consideration. There are some questions about whether Denver can do it again. But Billups is THAT good that he will find a way to make this team good again.

3. Spurs: This definitely has some strange Ride of the Valkyrie theme to the Spurs' latest push for the NBA title. This is probably their last realistic chance of winning a title with Tim Duncan getting older and Manu Ginobili on and off the injured list. Adding Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess will help significantly, but these aging guys are one injury away from another disaster like last year's.

4. Trail Blazers: Portland to me has great regular season team written all over it. Brandon Roy is a great player and they have a lot of good young pieces. Andre Miller will give them some veteran leadership, but the rumors have started that he is causing some trouble with his new role. But they are a solid offensive team. Roy will need to become that all-encompassing superstar to get Portland out of the first round.

5. Jazz: Utah is one of those scary teams. They stay healthy and it is clear they can compete in the West. They don't stay healthy and they lack the superstar to support Deron Williams' playmaking ability. Questions abound about Carlos Boozer and whether he will stay in the team. But with Memo Okur and Paul Milsap behind him, they have a difficult front court for opponents to deal with.

6. Mavericks: Dallas backcourt continues to be sneaky good. Jason Terry and Jason Kidd can still play despite some advanced ages -- and height disadvantages. Josh Howard is good when healthy and Shawn Marion is a do-everything forward. Dirk Nowitzki of course is a pretty solid player too. This would be a great running team if Rick Carlisle weren't such a plodding coach. I really don't know how to judge this team. Their front court depth is very worrisome.

7. Hornets: New Orleans will definitely be going through a transition with the trading of Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor. That could make them much more efficient in the half court, but could make it more difficult for Chris Paul to be Chris Paul. Definitely some transition, but this team could be a lot better with a more consistent, albeit still injury prone, center.

8. Suns: Phoenix has lost a little bit of its identity, but should find it again. Steve Nash is definitely on his last legs and who knows what Amare Stoudemire's health is like. But it is easy to forget Stoudemire can be quite an offensive force. The Suns will never be the force they were, but they can be a shadow of their former self.

9. Rockets: they are down their top two players -- Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming -- but something about this team says they could still be decent. Trevor Ariza is a decent pickup and this will be his first chance to be a featured player in an offense. But Daryl Morey knows his stuff and rarely misses. The way Houston played after Yao went down in the playoffs shows there is a lot of heart in this team. Can that las them 82 games?

10. Thunder: NBA geeks will say the Thunder are the sleeper team of the league. Kevin Durant is the best kept secret in the NBA and there are so many good young pieces. But this team is not ready. They do not nearly defend well enough to make it into the postseason out of the Western Conference. But the ex-Sonics are certainly coming in the future -- sorry Seattle.

11. Clippers: the Clippers might be good, seriously. Blake Griffin could be good. Baron Davis could be healthy. Eric Grodon could do more than score... maybe. Take everything with the Clippers with a grain of salt. They certainly have the talent, but might be too young and raw to make any postseason noise.

12. Warriors: Golden State is such a mess, I doubt I could make a complete sentence about them. Stephen Jackson, the team's best player, wants out. Stephen Curry is the perfect fit for that system, but has no one to pass him the ball. If you are looking for the definition of a team with all offense and no defense, this is it.

13. Timberwolves: the Ricky Rubio flop will haunt Minnesota for the next calendar year, but this team in all its wheeling and dealing made some good moves. Jonny Flynn will make a case for Rookie of the Year Runner-up. Al Jefferson is one of the best post players in the league -- and no one knows about him since he tore up his knee last season. They should play a decently entertaining style of ball. When they get Kevin Love back from injury in December, Minnesota will not be a tough out.

14. Kings: everyone likes Kevin Martin. He is an efficient scorer. But is he the high-volume scorer of the future for Sacramento? Who knows. Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson are also good players and Tyreke Evans might be the most interesting prospect from last year's draft. All in all, this is a young team with a lot of room to grow.

15. Grizzlies: Allen Iverson. Zach Randolph. Rudy Gay. O.J. Mayo. One basketball. The math just does not work for this talented, yet egotistical team. It has failure written all over it. Makes you fell sorry for Hasheem Thabeet.

West Finals: Lakers over Spurs in 6

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